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The analysis by a Taiwanese analyst on Rapidus: "It can be manufactured, but it won't be profitable."

Wed, 31 Jul 2024 00:39:07 GMT

The analysis by a Taiwanese analyst on Rapidus: "It can be manufactured, but it won't be profitable."

Isaiah Research Lucy Chen氏（前編）

2023.02.20

From the perspective of Taiwan, home to TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), which leads the mass production of advanced semiconductors, how does the foundry company Rapidus (based in Chiyoda, Tokyo) look as it aims for mass production of the 2nm generation process? This process is a technology that only a limited number of top foundries in the world are aiming to mass-produce. We spoke with Lucy Chen, Vice President of Isaiah Research, an analyst group based in Taiwan.

Lucy Chen（ルーシー・チェン）

Isaiah Research Vice President

【Q】Can Rapidus mass-produce 2nm generation process semiconductors?
【A】Technically, it is likely possible. However, achieving profitable mass production remains challenging.

In November 2022, the establishment of Rapidus was announced, with a plan to mass-produce 2nm generation process semiconductors by 2027. According to Isaiah Research, mass production is technically feasible. However, there are still doubts about whether Rapidus can achieve the necessary yield and productivity to make the production profitable.

The potential for achieving mass production of 2nm generation processes is attributed to support from overseas companies and Japan's strengths in semiconductor materials and equipment.

Rapidus benefits from strong technical support from U.S.-based IBM and Belgium's imec, both of which have advanced technology development centers and innovation hubs.

In the field of semiconductor materials, Japanese companies dominate more than half of the market. Specifically, Japanese companies almost monopolize products such as resists and etching gases.

In semiconductor equipment, Tokyo Electron is one of the world's largest vendors of etching equipment. Additionally, Lasertec, a Japanese company, handles mask blanks inspection and review equipment for EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography systems, which are essential for advanced semiconductors. The company anticipates further orders as the EUV lithography market grows.

With the support of these companies, it is possible to achieve mass production of 2nm generation processes. However, we believe the likelihood of achieving economies of scale remains low due to three main reasons: (1) lack of experience in mass production of advanced nodes, (2) insufficient funding, and (3) uncertainty in securing customers who need advanced nodes.

Firstly, Rapidus lacks experience in the mass production of advanced nodes. While obtaining the necessary semiconductor equipment and materials for mass production of 2nm generation processes may be straightforward for Rapidus, there are numerous challenges related to process integration and productivity improvement that must be addressed to achieve economies of scale.

As for the basic structure of 2nm generation process transistors, GAA (Gate All Around) FETs are notable. GAA is partially manufactured from the previous generation FinFET. For Rapidus, acquiring the technical know-how for mass production of GAA or FinFET is crucial.

However, the issue is where to obtain this FinFET mass production technology. The current state-of-the-art node for Japanese companies is Renesas Electronics' 40nm process, based on CMOS process and MCU (Micro Controller Unit) production technology. Developing nodes beyond the 10nm generation requires manufacturing experience with transistors like GAA and FinFET. These technologies are crucial for controlling leakage current and energy loss, and without them, it is difficult to achieve high yield and high-performance mass production of 2nm generation processes.

"TSMC also struggles with yield improvement."

Let's take TSMC's FinFET 3nm generation process as an example. At the start of mass production in the second half of 2022, it began with a significantly low yield of 40-50%. In contrast, the previous generation, the 5nm process, started in the first half of 2020 with yields between 50-60%. TSMC is expected to take until at least the second half of 2023 to achieve a more profitable yield of 75% or higher.

As for Samsung Electronics of South Korea, their 3nm generation process is reported to have a yield of 20-30% as of February 2023, which is lower than TSMC's figures. Achieving high efficiency in production will still take some time. Even leading companies in cutting-edge semiconductor technology like these two will require at least 1-2 years for yield improvement in their 3nm generation processes, not to mention the upcoming 2nm generation like that of Rapidas (Figure).

(2) There is a funding shortfall for mass production of the 2nm process. Further subsidies or continued support from the Japanese government are necessary.

Over the past few years, the Japanese government has shown a proactive stance toward semiconductor resurgence. Subsidies and favorable policies aimed at establishing TSMC's Kumamoto factory are a prime example. To facilitate the progress of Rapidas' 2nm generation project, the Japanese government has allocated subsidies, with additional investments serving as a crucial backing.

However, compared to TSMC's annual investment amounts, Japanese government contributions remain relatively modest. In November 2022, the Japanese government announced a ¥70 billion subsidy for Rapidas. While significant, this amount pales in comparison to TSMC's annual investments averaging between $30 billion to $40 billion USD (equivalent to approximately ¥3.93 trillion to ¥5.24 trillion at an exchange rate of ¥131 per USD). Future attention will focus on how much government investment in Rapidas will increase and how long it will be sustained.

This little-known Japanese company is a key player in the leading-edge chip industry—and that’s setting it up for success amid the AI boom

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 01:34:20 GMT

Lasertec's logo displayed at the company's booth at the Semicon Japan exhibition in Tokyo on Dec. 14, 2022.

KIYOSHI OTA—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES

This little-known Japanese company is a key player in the leading-edge chip industry—and that’s setting it up for success amid the AI boom

BY LIONEL LIM

March 22, 2024 at 5:00 AM GMT+8

Read or watch anything on the semiconductor industry, and the same names pop up again and again. There are the chipmakers : Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, Samsung Electronics or Intel, the companies who make the leading-edge chips that power the devices we use every day. Then there are the famous chip designers, like Nvidia, AMD and Arm. Maybe, if you dive a little deeper, you might encounter ASML, the Dutch company that makes the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines that make those advanced chips.

But the semiconductor industry is much broader than that. There’s a whole web of companies that play an important role in enabling the leading-edge and mature chipmakers to make the tiny pieces of silicon that go into our phones, fridges and washing machines. There are companies that supply the gases and materials, that make the chip making tools, and that make the parts that go into these tools.

美制裁上海微電重創中共發展光刻機野心

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 01:34:20 GMT

美國加州勞倫斯‧利弗莫爾國家實驗室極紫外光微影製程。(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

美制裁上海微電重創中共發展光刻機野心

大紀元2022年12月16日訊

2022-12-16 11:11 AM

美國商務部將36家中共科技企業和實體列入貿易黑名單「實體清單」，其中包括上海微電子裝備集團有限公司（簡稱上海微電）。因為上海微電是中共光刻機產業的龍頭企業，美方此舉將重創中共先進光刻機產業，乃至芯片自給自足野心。

美國商務部將這些公司列入實體名單（Entity List），意味著任何試圖向它們提供美國技術的公司和個人都需要獲得美國政府的許可，且這種許可很難獲得。在這些上到新黑名單的公司中，有21家還受到進一步限制——外國直接產品規則（FDPR）——禁止外國公司向中國實體銷售採用美國技術或設備生產的商品，其中包括上海微電。

今年2月，上海微電被美國商務部納入出口觀察清單，而週四被正式列入出口管制清單。美方認為上海微電支持中共軍事現代化。美國還制裁了上海集成電路研發中心，這是一家由上海市政府支持的公司，致力於在不使用美國技術情況下製造國產芯片。

缺先進光刻機中共無法製造先進芯片

上海微電子，更廣為人知的名稱是SMEE，是中國唯一一家能夠生產用於高端半導體開發的先進光刻設備的中國公司，在中共芯片自給自足計劃中占據重要地位。

中國目前無法製造先進的芯片，例如用於最新智能手機的芯片，主要是因為中國無法生產最先進的光刻機，而該領域目前由荷蘭公司阿斯麥（ASML Holding）主導。

雖然SMEE是中國唯一的光刻機製造商，但其設備只能生產90納米節點的芯片，離尖端光刻機還很遠。SMEE今年年初已經交付了首台2.5至3維先進封裝光刻機，但分析人士稱，封裝光刻機用於晶圓封裝，屬於芯片製造的後道工序。相比之下，晶圓製造是一個前端過程，需要更複雜的機器。

中國芯謀諮詢（ICwise）研究總監宋長庚此前對《南華早報》說，「我們目前卡在40納米以下分辨率的晶圓製造光刻機，目前還沒有取得明顯成果。」

「如果中國（中共）想在半導體行業達到一定程度的自力更生……中國工具供應商需要為代工廠開發光刻工具，技術需要足夠好才能與ASML、佳能和尼康競爭。」台灣Isaiah Research副總裁Lucy Chen今年2月對《南華早報》說。

缺乏外國供應商協助中共自給自足幾無可能

阿斯麥生產的光刻機對於生產最先進芯片至關重要，該公司在該領域的技術優勢是目前世界上任何一家公司都無法比擬的，也是全球唯一一家能夠供應7奈米及以下晶片所需的EUV（極紫外）光刻機的廠商。美國最新制裁限制SMEE獲得先進技術和產品，使得該公司更難以提升光刻機生產水平。

據悉，在2021年的全球光刻機市場，荷蘭ASML獨占了79.4%的市場份額，尼康與佳能分別占據10.4%和10.2%的市場份額。和ASML相比，尼康處於較大劣勢，其核心能力集中在最低端的UV（i－line）光刻機領域以及次高端的DUV領域。

由於美國禁令，ASML從2018年起就被禁止向中國出口EUV設備，美國擔憂中共取得最先進半導體技術的話，可能會被用於軍事用途，打造出更具威脅性的武器裝備，今年10月拜登政府新半導體禁令出爐後，ASML也要求旗下的美籍員工禁止為中國客戶提供服務。但是中國公司憑藉目前能夠取得的深紫外光刻機（DUV）設備，仍然一步步推進半導體技術。

美國一直在遊說其合作夥伴，包括日本和荷蘭，收緊對中國出口用於製造半導體的設備。彭博社不久前報導，荷蘭政府有意對半導體製造設備出口至中國祭出新的管制。

雖然荷蘭還沒有做出最終決定，目前披露的資訊顯示，荷蘭考慮禁止向中國銷售能夠用於14納米及更先進制程的半導體設備，符合美國對邏輯芯片製造設備的限制，也代表ASML的浸潤式微影設備恐怕無法出口至中國。

對中共芯片產業來說，荷蘭參與制裁毫無疑問是毀滅性的打擊，缺乏ASML等美國以外供應商的設備，中共芯片自給自足幾乎是不可能的任務。

即使先不談技術先進與否的問題，中國半導體設備產業規模都太小，研究機構伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）資料顯示，直到2021年為止，中國國產半導體設備最多只能滿足國內12%的需求，其餘都得依賴外國供應商。

伯恩斯坦半導體分析師Mark Li認為，中共離半導體的自給自足還差得遠，假如缺乏外國供應商的協助，他們不太可能打造出能夠順利運行的產線。

e356db4d

The analysis by a Taiwanese analyst on Rapidus: "It can be manufactured, but it won't be profitable."

This little-known Japanese company is a key player in the leading-edge chip industry—and that’s setting it up for success amid the AI boom

美制裁上海微電 重創中共發展光刻機野心

美制裁上海微電重創中共發展光刻機野心